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Abstract The identification and description of point sources is one of the oldest problems in astronomy, yet even today the correct statistical treatment for point sources remains one of the field’s hardest problems. For dim or crowded sources, likelihood-based inference methods are required to estimate the uncertainty on the characteristics of the source population. In this work, a new parametric likelihood is constructed for this problem using compound Poisson generator (CPG) functionals that incorporate instrumental effects from first principles. We demonstrate that the CPG approach exhibits a number of advantages over non-Poissonian template fitting (NPTF)—an existing method—in a series of test scenarios in the context of X-ray astronomy. These demonstrations show that the effect of the point-spread function, effective area, and choice of point-source spatial distribution cannot, generally, be factorized as they are in NPTF, while the new CPG construction is validated in these scenarios. Separately, an examination of the diffuse-flux emission limit is used to show that most simple choices of priors on the standard parameterization of the population model can result in unexpected biases: when a model comprising both a point-source population and diffuse component is applied to this limit, nearly all observed flux will be assigned to either the population or to the diffuse component. A new parameterization is presented for these priors that properly estimates the uncertainties in this limit. In this choice of priors, CPG correctly identifies that the fraction of flux assigned to the population model cannot be constrained by the data. 

The IceCube Neutrino Observatory at the South Pole has measured the diffuse astrophysical neutrino flux up to ~PeV energies and is starting to identify first point source candidates. The next generation facility, IceCube-Gen2, aims at extending the accessible energy range to EeV in order to measure the continuation of the astrophysical spectrum, to identify neutrino sources, and to search for a cosmogenic neutrino flux. As part of IceCube-Gen2, a radio array is foreseen that is sensitive to detect Askaryan emission of neutrinos beyond ~30 PeV. Surface and deep antenna stations have different benefits in terms of effective area, resolution, and the capability to reject backgrounds from cosmic-ray air showers and may be combined to reach the best sensitivity. The optimal detector configuration is still to be identified. This contribution presents the full-array simulation efforts for a combination of deep and surface antennas, and compares different design options with respect to their sensitivity to fulfill the science goals of IceCube-Gen2. 

The IceCube Neutrino Observatory opened the window on high-energy neutrino astronomy by confirming the existence of PeV astrophysical neutrinos and identifying the first compelling astrophysical neutrino source in the blazar TXS0506+056. Planning is underway to build an enlarged detector, IceCube-Gen2, which will extend measurements to higher energies, increase the rate of observed cosmic neutrinos and provide improved prospects for detecting fainter sources. IceCube-Gen2 is planned to have an extended in-ice optical array, a radio array at shallower depths for detecting ultra-high-energy (>100 PeV) neutrinos, and a surface component studying cosmic rays. In this contribution, we will discuss the simulation of the in-ice optical component of the baseline design of the IceCube-Gen2 detector, which foresees the deployment of an additional ~120 new detection strings to the existing 86 in IceCube over ~7 Antarctic summer seasons. Motivated by the phased construction plan for IceCube-Gen2, we discuss how the reconstruction capabilities and sensitivities of the instrument are expected to progress throughout its deployment.